Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Katerina Siniakova
To win
+$10.00
Total payout
$30.00
Joint prob
75.9%
Combined odds
1.50
Fair odds
1.32
Edge
+13.9%
Expected value: +$2.77 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.77 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 75.9% · fair market: 64.5% · edge: +17.8%
Model probabilities Kamilla Rakhimova 24.1% · Katerina Siniakova 75.9% Why Katerina Siniakova is favoured Katerina Siniakova's Elo (1599) is +116 over Kamilla Rakhimova (1483); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 75.9% vs market 64.5% (edge +17.8%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).