Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Terence Atmane
To win
+$94.00
Total payout
$114.00
Joint prob
29.5%
Combined odds
5.70
Fair odds
3.39
Edge
+68.3%
Expected value: +$13.66 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$13.66 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 29.5% · fair market: 17.2% · edge: +72.1%
Model probabilities Alexander Zverev 70.5% · Terence Atmane 29.5% Why Alexander Zverev is favoured Alexander Zverev's Elo (1878) is +294 over Terence Atmane (1584); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 89.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 70.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 29.5% vs market 17.2% (edge +72.1%, suggested Kelly +14.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.