Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Madison Keys
To win
+$23.60
Total payout
$43.60
Joint prob
46.2%
Combined odds
2.18
Fair odds
2.16
Edge
+0.7%
Expected value: +$0.14 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.14 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 46.2% · fair market: 44.8% · edge: +3.1%
Marta Kostyuk enters the match having secured a comeback victory in the second round of the WTA Canadian Open. She has been in strong form this season, reaching back-to-back Grand Slam semifinals at the French Open and Wimbledon, and winning her first WTA 1000 title in Madrid.
Lineup: Expected to start and compete in the match.
Madison Keys is also competing in the WTA Canadian Open, with her most recent match in Toronto resulting in a victory. She has previously dealt with a left thigh injury earlier in the season but recovered to play in major tournaments.
Lineup: Expected to start and compete in the match.
“Marta Kostyuk and Madison Keys set for WTA Canadian Open clash, both coming off recent wins in Toronto.”
Model probabilities Marta Kostyuk 53.8% · Madison Keys 46.2% Why Marta Kostyuk is favoured Marta Kostyuk's Elo (1791) is +10 over Madison Keys (1781); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 46.2% vs market 44.8% (edge +3.1%, suggested Kelly +0.6% of bankroll). News context Marta Kostyuk and Madison Keys set for WTA Canadian Open clash, both coming off recent wins in Toronto. Marta Kostyuk: Marta Kostyuk enters the match having secured a comeback victory in the second round of the WTA Canadian Open. She has been in strong form this season, reaching back-to-back Grand Slam semifinals at the French Open and Wimbledon, and winning her first WTA 1000 title in Madrid. Madison Keys: Madison Keys is also competing in the WTA Canadian Open, with her most recent match in Toronto resulting in a victory. She has previously dealt with a left thigh injury earlier in the season but recovered to play in major tournaments.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.