Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Anastasia Potapova
To win
+$9.80
Total payout
$29.80
Joint prob
79.0%
Combined odds
1.49
Fair odds
1.27
Edge
+17.8%
Expected value: +$3.56 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.56 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 79.0% · fair market: 64.9% · edge: +21.7%
Model probabilities Sloane Stephens 21.0% · Anastasia Potapova 79.0% Why Anastasia Potapova is favoured Anastasia Potapova's Elo (1644) is +228 over Sloane Stephens (1416); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 13.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 21.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 79.0% vs market 64.9% (edge +21.7%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).