Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Kamilla Rakhimova
To win
+$233.40
Total payout
$253.40
Joint prob
16.3%
Combined odds
12.67
Fair odds
6.13
Edge
+106.7%
Expected value: +$21.35 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$21.35 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 16.3% · fair market: 7.7% · edge: +113.2%
Model probabilities Aryna Sabalenka 83.7% · Kamilla Rakhimova 16.3% Why Aryna Sabalenka is favoured Aryna Sabalenka's Elo (2044) is +564 over Kamilla Rakhimova (1480); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 97.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 83.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 16.3% vs market 7.7% (edge +113.2%, suggested Kelly +9.1% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.