Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Marton Fucsovics
To win
+$20.80
Total payout
$40.80
Joint prob
51.8%
Combined odds
2.04
Fair odds
1.93
Edge
+5.7%
Expected value: +$1.14 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.14 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 51.8% · fair market: 47.6% · edge: +9.0%
Model probabilities Marton Fucsovics 51.8% · Corentin Moutet 48.2% Why Marton Fucsovics is favoured Elo essentially level (1573 vs 1567) — winner depends on context. +EV vs market home: model 51.8% vs market 47.6% (edge +9.0%, suggested Kelly +5.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.