Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Novak Djokovic
To win
+$41.20
Total payout
$61.20
Joint prob
54.3%
Combined odds
3.06
Fair odds
1.84
Edge
+66.1%
Expected value: +$13.21 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$13.21 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 54.3% · fair market: 31.7% · edge: +71.2%
Model probabilities Alexander Zverev 45.7% · Novak Djokovic 54.3% Why Novak Djokovic is favoured Elo essentially level (1894 vs 1900) — winner depends on context. Calibration Raw model: 48.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 45.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 54.3% vs market 31.7% (edge +71.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.