Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Thiago Agustin Tirante
To win
+$33.60
Total payout
$53.60
Joint prob
74.9%
Combined odds
2.68
Fair odds
1.33
Edge
+100.9%
Expected value: +$20.17 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$20.17 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 74.9% · fair market: 35.7% · edge: +109.7%
Model probabilities Thiago Agustin Tirante 74.9% · Mattia Bellucci 25.1% Why Thiago Agustin Tirante is favoured Thiago Agustin Tirante's Elo (1621) is +152 over Mattia Bellucci (1469); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 80.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 74.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 74.9% vs market 35.7% (edge +109.7%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.