▸ Sealed before kickoff1.5h before kickoff2026-08-14 18:32 UTC· result settled — verifiable
19%
Low confidence
ratings essentially level · thin sample · leaning but close
How the model did
Final
0 — 2
Tereza Valentova won
✓ Model was right
Model assigned
60.7%
to tereza valentova
Model's top pick
away
top probability
Brier (↓ better)
0.310
Log loss (↓ better)
0.500
Graded Aug 15, 2026 · 04:02
Form & matchup
Mary Stoiana
Elo 1476
No recent matches on file.
Tereza Valentova
Elo 1503
No recent matches on file.
Rating edge
Tereza Valentova +28
Confidence: 10%
Head to head
No prior meetings on file.
Rest days
Mary Stoiana
–
Tereza Valentova
–
Model probability
v0.1.0-elo-logistic ·
Mary Stoiana
39.3%
Tereza Valentova
60.7%
0 priced, 11 markets without prices hidden
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Reasoning
Model probabilities
Mary Stoiana 39.3% · Tereza Valentova 60.7%
Calibration
Raw model: 52.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 39.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.
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