Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 52.8% · fair market: 51.7% · edge: +2.1%
Model probabilities Tommy Paul 52.8% · Hubert Hurkacz 47.2% Why Tommy Paul is favoured Tommy Paul's Elo (1726) is +137 over Hubert Hurkacz (1589); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 78.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 52.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.