Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Qinwen Zheng
To win
+$12.20
Total payout
$32.20
Joint prob
66.3%
Combined odds
1.61
Fair odds
1.51
Edge
+6.7%
Expected value: +$1.34 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.34 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 66.3% · fair market: 56.8% · edge: +16.6%
Model probabilities Marie Bouzkova 33.7% · Qinwen Zheng 66.3% Why Qinwen Zheng is favoured Qinwen Zheng's Elo (1732) is +65 over Marie Bouzkova (1667); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 32.6% home · Platt-calibrated up to 33.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 66.3% vs market 56.8% (edge +16.6%, suggested Kelly +11.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.