Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 66.4% · fair market: 64.7% · edge: +2.6%
Model probabilities Tommy Paul 66.4% · Holger Rune 33.6% Why Tommy Paul is favoured Tommy Paul's Elo (1749) is +80 over Holger Rune (1669); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 70.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 66.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.