▸ Sealed before kickoff3.6h before kickoff2026-08-02 14:03 UTC· result settled — verifiable
29%
Low confidence
ratings essentially level · strong sample · leaning but close
How the model did
Final
0 — 2
Katherine Sebov won
✕ Model was wrong
Model assigned
41.9%
to katherine sebov
Model's top pick
home
top probability
Brier (↓ better)
0.674
Log loss (↓ better)
0.869
Graded Aug 3, 2026 · 04:02
Form & matchup
Aoi Ito
Elo 1481
No recent matches on file.
Katherine Sebov
Elo 1483
No recent matches on file.
Rating edge
Katherine Sebov +2
Confidence: 60%
Head to head
No prior meetings on file.
Rest days
Aoi Ito
–
Katherine Sebov
–
Model probability
v0.1.0-elo-logistic ·
Aoi Ito
58.1%
Katherine Sebov
41.9%
0 priced, 11 markets without prices hidden
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Reasoning
Model probabilities
Aoi Ito 58.1% · Katherine Sebov 41.9%
Why Aoi Ito is favoured
Aoi Ito's Elo (1498) is +27 over Katherine Sebov (1471); medium confidence.
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