Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Ignacio Buse
To win
+$29.20
Total payout
$49.20
Joint prob
62.3%
Combined odds
2.46
Fair odds
1.60
Edge
+53.4%
Expected value: +$10.67 on a $20 stake.
Ignacio Buse has reportedly faced 'physical issues' on hard courts this season, which could impact his performance in the match against Adam Walton. No integrity flags or other significant morale or squad harmony issues were found for either player in the last 14 days. Adam Walton entered the tournament as a replacement for an injured player and has won his first-round match.
Ignacio Buse has reportedly experienced 'physical issues' on hard courts this season, potentially affecting his momentum.
Adam Walton is expected to play, having advanced to the second round of the ATP Cincinnati Open.
Ignacio Buse is expected to play as the 29th seed, despite general reports of 'physical issues' on hard courts this season.
Expected value: +$10.67 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 62.3% · fair market: 39.6% · edge: +57.6%
Model probabilities Adam Walton 37.7% · Ignacio Buse 62.3% Why Ignacio Buse is favoured Elo essentially level (1484 vs 1487) — winner depends on context. Calibration Raw model: 49.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 37.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 62.3% vs market 39.6% (edge +57.6%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.