Model probabilities Iga Swiatek 30.0% · Elena Rybakina 70.0% Why Elena Rybakina is favoured Elena Rybakina's Elo (1976) is +71 over Iga Swiatek (1905); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 31.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 30.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.