Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Valentin Vacherot
To win
+$67.60
Total payout
$87.60
Joint prob
24.8%
Combined odds
4.38
Fair odds
4.03
Edge
+8.6%
Expected value: +$1.72 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.72 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 24.8% · fair market: 22.3% · edge: +11.0%
Model probabilities Valentin Vacherot 24.8% · Arthur Fils 75.2% Why Arthur Fils is favoured Arthur Fils's Elo (1807) is +136 over Valentin Vacherot (1671); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 21.7% home · Platt-calibrated up to 24.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 24.8% vs market 22.3% (edge +11.0%, suggested Kelly +2.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.