Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jesper De Jong
To win
+$82.60
Total payout
$102.60
Joint prob
45.6%
Combined odds
5.13
Fair odds
2.19
Edge
+134.1%
Expected value: +$26.83 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$26.83 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 45.6% · fair market: 19.0% · edge: +140.8%
Alex Michelsen enters the Cincinnati Open in strong hard-court form, having won 9 of his last 11 matches on the surface, including reaching the third round of the Canadian Open and quarterfinals in Washington, D.C. He has recently recovered from an oblique strain that impacted his grass-court season and is now healthy, actively playing matches to regain his rhythm on hard courts.
Lineup: Expected to play in the Cincinnati Open.
Jesper De Jong is set to begin his North American hard-court season at the Cincinnati Open, having recently competed on clay after Wimbledon. While he holds a 60% win rate in his last ten matches overall, he has yet to secure a victory on hard courts this year.
Lineup: Expected to play in the Cincinnati Open.
“Alex Michelsen enters the Cincinnati Open with strong hard-court form and a clean bill of health, while Jesper De Jong begins his North American hard-court season seeking his first hard-court win of the year.”
Model probabilities Alex Michelsen 54.4% · Jesper De Jong 45.6% Why Alex Michelsen is favoured Alex Michelsen's Elo (1659) is +156 over Jesper De Jong (1503); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 80.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 54.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 45.6% vs market 19.0% (edge +140.8%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). News context Alex Michelsen enters the Cincinnati Open with strong hard-court form and a clean bill of health, while Jesper De Jong begins his North American hard-court season seeking his first hard-court win of the year. Alex Michelsen: Alex Michelsen enters the Cincinnati Open in strong hard-court form, having won 9 of his last 11 matches on the surface, including reaching the third round of the Canadian Open and quarterfinals in Washington, D.C. He has recently recovered from an oblique strain that impacted his grass-court season and is now healthy, actively playing matches to regain his rhythm on hard courts. Jesper De Jong: Jesper De Jong is set to begin his North American hard-court season at the Cincinnati Open, having recently competed on clay after Wimbledon. While he holds a 60% win rate in his last ten matches overall, he has yet to secure a victory on hard courts this year.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.