Model probabilities Denis Shapovalov 49.0% · Adrian Mannarino 51.0% Why Adrian Mannarino is favoured Denis Shapovalov's Elo (1602) is +91 over Adrian Mannarino (1511); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 72.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 49.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.