Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Thiago Agustin Tirante
To win
+$63.60
Total payout
$83.60
Joint prob
33.5%
Combined odds
4.18
Fair odds
2.99
Edge
+40.0%
Expected value: +$8.00 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$8.00 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 33.5% · fair market: 23.2% · edge: +44.6%
Model probabilities Novak Djokovic 66.5% · Thiago Agustin Tirante 33.5% Why Novak Djokovic is favoured Novak Djokovic's Elo (1924) is +357 over Thiago Agustin Tirante (1567); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 92.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 66.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 33.5% vs market 23.2% (edge +44.6%, suggested Kelly +12.6% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.