Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Grigor Dimitrov
To win
+$14.00
Total payout
$34.00
Joint prob
76.1%
Combined odds
1.70
Fair odds
1.31
Edge
+29.3%
Expected value: +$5.87 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.87 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 76.1% · fair market: 57.2% · edge: +33.0%
Model probabilities Sebastian Baez 23.9% · Grigor Dimitrov 76.1% Why Grigor Dimitrov is favoured Grigor Dimitrov's Elo (1640) is +163 over Sebastian Baez (1478); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 19.0% home · Platt-calibrated up to 23.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 76.1% vs market 57.2% (edge +33.0%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.