Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Tallon Griekspoor
To win
+$13.80
Total payout
$33.80
Joint prob
75.7%
Combined odds
1.69
Fair odds
1.32
Edge
+28.0%
Expected value: +$5.60 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.60 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 75.7% · fair market: 57.4% · edge: +31.9%
Model probabilities Tallon Griekspoor 75.7% · Matteo Arnaldi 24.3% Why Tallon Griekspoor is favoured Tallon Griekspoor's Elo (1646) is +115 over Matteo Arnaldi (1532); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 75.7% vs market 57.4% (edge +31.9%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.