Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Hubert Hurkacz
To win
+$8.20
Total payout
$28.20
Joint prob
78.8%
Combined odds
1.41
Fair odds
1.27
Edge
+11.0%
Expected value: +$2.21 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.21 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 78.8% · fair market: 68.9% · edge: +14.2%
Model probabilities Hubert Hurkacz 78.8% · James Duckworth 21.2% Why Hubert Hurkacz is favoured Hubert Hurkacz's Elo (1614) is +198 over James Duckworth (1416); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 83.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 78.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 78.8% vs market 68.9% (edge +14.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.