Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Benjamin Bonzi
To win
+$33.60
Total payout
$53.60
Joint prob
50.3%
Combined odds
2.68
Fair odds
1.99
Edge
+34.9%
Expected value: +$6.98 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.98 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 50.3% · fair market: 33.0% · edge: +52.5%
Model probabilities Karen Khachanov 49.7% · Benjamin Bonzi 50.3% Why Benjamin Bonzi is favoured Karen Khachanov's Elo (1589) is +37 over Benjamin Bonzi (1551); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 60.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 49.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 50.3% vs market 33.0% (edge +52.5%, suggested Kelly +20.8% of bankroll).