Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Caty McNally
To win
+$11.80
Total payout
$31.80
Joint prob
78.1%
Combined odds
1.59
Fair odds
1.28
Edge
+24.3%
Expected value: +$4.85 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.85 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 78.1% · fair market: 61.2% · edge: +27.7%
Model probabilities Tatjana Maria 21.9% · Caty McNally 78.1% Why Caty McNally is favoured Caty McNally's Elo (1549) is +134 over Tatjana Maria (1415); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 78.1% vs market 61.2% (edge +27.7%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.