Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 25.2% · fair market: 27.1% · edge: -6.8%
Model probabilities Rinky Hijikata 25.2% · Jakub Mensik 74.8% Why Jakub Mensik is favoured Jakub Mensik's Elo (1733) is +202 over Rinky Hijikata (1531); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 15.8% home · Platt-calibrated up to 25.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.