Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Daniel Altmaier
To win
+$26.00
Total payout
$46.00
Joint prob
56.6%
Combined odds
2.30
Fair odds
1.77
Edge
+30.2%
Expected value: +$6.05 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.05 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 56.6% · fair market: 42.2% · edge: +34.1%
Model probabilities Zachary Svajda 43.4% · Daniel Altmaier 56.6% Why Daniel Altmaier is favoured Elo essentially level (1480 vs 1485) — winner depends on context. Calibration Raw model: 48.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 43.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 56.6% vs market 42.2% (edge +34.1%, suggested Kelly +23.3% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.