Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Flavio Cobolli
To win
+$49.00
Total payout
$69.00
Joint prob
55.3%
Combined odds
3.45
Fair odds
1.81
Edge
+90.8%
Expected value: +$18.16 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$18.16 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 55.3% · fair market: 28.1% · edge: +96.6%
Model probabilities Rafael Jodar 44.7% · Flavio Cobolli 55.3% Why Flavio Cobolli is favoured Elo essentially level (1627 vs 1623) — winner depends on context. Calibration Raw model: 51.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 44.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 55.3% vs market 28.1% (edge +96.6%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (40% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.