Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Adrian Mannarino
To win
+$60.20
Total payout
$80.20
Joint prob
37.2%
Combined odds
4.01
Fair odds
2.69
Edge
+49.3%
Expected value: +$9.85 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$9.85 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 37.2% · fair market: 24.3% · edge: +52.9%
Model probabilities Alexander Bublik 62.8% · Adrian Mannarino 37.2% Why Alexander Bublik is favoured Alexander Bublik's Elo (1681) is +171 over Adrian Mannarino (1511); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 81.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 62.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 37.2% vs market 24.3% (edge +52.9%, suggested Kelly +16.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.