Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 20.0% · fair market: 20.2% · edge: -0.8%
Model probabilities Yi Zhou 20.0% · Lorenzo Musetti 80.0% Why Lorenzo Musetti is favoured Lorenzo Musetti's Elo (1698) is +212 over Yi Zhou (1486); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 15.1% home · Platt-calibrated up to 20.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.