Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Pablo Llamas Ruiz
To win
+$19.20
Total payout
$39.20
Joint prob
54.9%
Combined odds
1.96
Fair odds
1.82
Edge
+7.6%
Expected value: +$1.52 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.52 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 54.9% · fair market: 49.0% · edge: +12.1%
Model probabilities Alexander Shevchenko 45.1% · Pablo Llamas Ruiz 54.9% Why Pablo Llamas Ruiz is favoured Alexander Shevchenko's Elo (1552) is +55 over Pablo Llamas Ruiz (1497); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 65.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 45.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 54.9% vs market 49.0% (edge +12.1%, suggested Kelly +7.9% of bankroll).