Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Lanlana Tararudee
To win
+$90.40
Total payout
$110.40
Joint prob
22.0%
Combined odds
5.52
Fair odds
4.55
Edge
+21.2%
Expected value: +$4.24 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.24 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 22.0% · fair market: 17.7% · edge: +23.8%
Model probabilities Lanlana Tararudee 22.0% · Linda Noskova 78.0% Why Linda Noskova is favoured Linda Noskova's Elo (1771) is +267 over Lanlana Tararudee (1504); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 11.6% home · Platt-calibrated up to 22.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 22.0% vs market 17.7% (edge +23.8%, suggested Kelly +4.7% of bankroll).