Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Maria Sakkari
To win
+$80.00
Total payout
$100.00
Joint prob
32.2%
Combined odds
5.00
Fair odds
3.11
Edge
+60.8%
Expected value: +$12.17 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$12.17 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 32.2% · fair market: 18.2% · edge: +77.1%
Model probabilities Iga Swiatek 67.8% · Maria Sakkari 32.2% Why Iga Swiatek is favoured Iga Swiatek's Elo (1908) is +249 over Maria Sakkari (1658); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 87.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 67.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 32.2% vs market 18.2% (edge +77.1%, suggested Kelly +15.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.