Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Francesca Jones
To win
+$104.00
Total payout
$124.00
Joint prob
44.5%
Combined odds
6.20
Fair odds
2.25
Edge
+175.7%
Expected value: +$35.14 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$35.14 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 44.5% · fair market: 15.6% · edge: +184.2%
Model probabilities Iva Jović 55.5% · Francesca Jones 44.5% Why Iva Jović is favoured Iva Jović's Elo (1523) is +85 over Francesca Jones (1438); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 71.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 55.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 44.5% vs market 15.6% (edge +184.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.