Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Maria Sakkari
To win
+$11.80
Total payout
$31.80
Joint prob
70.4%
Combined odds
1.59
Fair odds
1.42
Edge
+12.0%
Expected value: +$2.40 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.40 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 70.4% · fair market: 61.0% · edge: +15.4%
Model probabilities Maria Sakkari 70.4% · Zeynep Sonmez 29.6% Why Maria Sakkari is favoured Maria Sakkari's Elo (1645) is +80 over Zeynep Sonmez (1564); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 70.4% vs market 61.0% (edge +15.4%, suggested Kelly +20.3% of bankroll).