Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 56.5% · fair market: 57.0% · edge: -0.9%
Model probabilities Denis Shapovalov 56.5% · Alejandro Tabilo 43.5% Why Denis Shapovalov is favoured Denis Shapovalov's Elo (1606) is +40 over Alejandro Tabilo (1566); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 61.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 56.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.