Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Yannick Hanfmann
To win
+$22.80
Total payout
$42.80
Joint prob
58.2%
Combined odds
2.14
Fair odds
1.72
Edge
+24.6%
Expected value: +$4.91 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.91 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 58.2% · fair market: 42.6% · edge: +36.5%
Yannick Hanfmann enters this match with boosted confidence after a significant upset win against sixth seed Flavio Cobolli in straight sets at the Canadian Open. He is known for his grinding baseline game and ability to extend matches, which could test his opponent.
Lineup: Expected to start.
Nuno Borges advanced to the third round of the Canadian Open by efficiently defeating 26th seed Tomas Etcheverry in straight sets. He has demonstrated excellent serving, though his break point conversion rate has been noted as an area for improvement.
Lineup: Expected to start.
“Hanfmann and Borges set for tight Canadian Open clash after impressive upset victories in previous round.”
Model probabilities Yannick Hanfmann 58.2% · Nuno Borges 41.8% Why Yannick Hanfmann is favoured Yannick Hanfmann's Elo (1608) is +27 over Nuno Borges (1581); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 58.2% vs market 42.6% (edge +36.5%, suggested Kelly +21.5% of bankroll). News context Hanfmann and Borges set for tight Canadian Open clash after impressive upset victories in previous round. Yannick Hanfmann: Yannick Hanfmann enters this match with boosted confidence after a significant upset win against sixth seed Flavio Cobolli in straight sets at the Canadian Open. He is known for his grinding baseline game and ability to extend matches, which could test his opponent. Nuno Borges: Nuno Borges advanced to the third round of the Canadian Open by efficiently defeating 26th seed Tomas Etcheverry in straight sets. He has demonstrated excellent serving, though his break point conversion rate has been noted as an area for improvement.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.