Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jack Draper
To win
+$9.00
Total payout
$29.00
Joint prob
86.9%
Combined odds
1.45
Fair odds
1.15
Edge
+26.0%
Expected value: +$5.21 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.21 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 86.9% · fair market: 67.0% · edge: +29.8%
Model probabilities Terence Atmane 13.1% · Jack Draper 86.9% Why Jack Draper is favoured Jack Draper's Elo (1775) is +241 over Terence Atmane (1534); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 86.9% vs market 67.0% (edge +29.8%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.