Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alexander Zverev
To win
+$8.00
Total payout
$28.00
Joint prob
77.4%
Combined odds
1.40
Fair odds
1.29
Edge
+8.3%
Expected value: +$1.67 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.67 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 77.4% · fair market: 69.1% · edge: +12.0%
Model probabilities Alexander Zverev 77.4% · Lorenzo Musetti 22.6% Why Alexander Zverev is favoured Alexander Zverev's Elo (1878) is +180 over Lorenzo Musetti (1698); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 82.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 77.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 77.4% vs market 69.1% (edge +12.0%, suggested Kelly +20.8% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.