Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 35.3% · fair market: 36.9% · edge: -4.5%
Model probabilities Jelena Ostapenko 35.3% · Elise Mertens 64.7% Why Elise Mertens is favoured Elise Mertens's Elo (1667) is +68 over Jelena Ostapenko (1599); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 32.0% home · Platt-calibrated up to 35.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.