Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Botic van de Zandschulp
To win
+$50.20
Total payout
$70.20
Joint prob
52.5%
Combined odds
3.51
Fair odds
1.91
Edge
+84.2%
Expected value: +$16.84 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$16.84 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 52.5% · fair market: 27.6% · edge: +89.9%
Model probabilities Joao Fonseca 47.5% · Botic van de Zandschulp 52.5% Why Botic van de Zandschulp is favoured Joao Fonseca's Elo (1707) is +77 over Botic van de Zandschulp (1631); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 69.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 47.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 52.5% vs market 27.6% (edge +89.9%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.