Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Xiyu Wang
To win
+$24.80
Total payout
$44.80
Joint prob
44.7%
Combined odds
2.24
Fair odds
2.24
Edge
+0.0%
Expected value: +$0.01 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.01 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 44.7% · fair market: 43.1% · edge: +3.5%
Model probabilities Leylah Fernandez 55.3% · Xiyu Wang 44.7% Why Leylah Fernandez is favoured Leylah Fernandez's Elo (1663) is +173 over Xiyu Wang (1490); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 81.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 55.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 44.7% vs market 43.1% (edge +3.5%, suggested Kelly +0.0% of bankroll).