Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Arthur Rinderknech
To win
+$47.40
Total payout
$67.40
Joint prob
36.4%
Combined odds
3.37
Fair odds
2.75
Edge
+22.5%
Expected value: +$4.50 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.50 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 36.4% · fair market: 28.9% · edge: +25.8%
Model probabilities Daniil Medvedev 63.6% · Arthur Rinderknech 36.4% Why Daniil Medvedev is favoured Daniil Medvedev's Elo (1779) is +183 over Arthur Rinderknech (1596); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 82.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 63.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 36.4% vs market 28.9% (edge +25.8%, suggested Kelly +9.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.