Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Matteo Berrettini
To win
+$10.40
Total payout
$30.40
Joint prob
73.0%
Combined odds
1.52
Fair odds
1.37
Edge
+11.0%
Expected value: +$2.20 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.20 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 73.0% · fair market: 63.7% · edge: +14.6%
Model probabilities Aleksandar Kovacevic 27.0% · Matteo Berrettini 73.0% Why Matteo Berrettini is favoured Matteo Berrettini's Elo (1624) is +130 over Aleksandar Kovacevic (1494); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 22.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 27.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 73.0% vs market 63.7% (edge +14.6%, suggested Kelly +21.1% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.