Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Tommy Paul
To win
+$9.80
Total payout
$29.80
Joint prob
80.6%
Combined odds
1.49
Fair odds
1.24
Edge
+20.1%
Expected value: +$4.03 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.03 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 80.6% · fair market: 64.9% · edge: +24.2%
Model probabilities Tommy Paul 80.6% · Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 19.4% Why Tommy Paul is favoured Tommy Paul's Elo (1749) is +224 over Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (1525); low confidence. Calibration Raw model: 85.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 80.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 80.6% vs market 64.9% (edge +24.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (35% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.