Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Kaitlin Quevedo
To win
+$93.60
Total payout
$113.60
Joint prob
28.8%
Combined odds
5.68
Fair odds
3.47
Edge
+63.5%
Expected value: +$12.71 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$12.71 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 28.8% · fair market: 17.1% · edge: +68.6%
Model probabilities Kaitlin Quevedo 28.8% · Elise Mertens 71.2% Calibration Raw model: 21.1% home · Platt-calibrated up to 28.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 28.8% vs market 17.1% (edge +68.6%, suggested Kelly +13.6% of bankroll).