Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Lorenzo Musetti
To win
+$11.60
Total payout
$31.60
Joint prob
74.0%
Combined odds
1.58
Fair odds
1.35
Edge
+16.9%
Expected value: +$3.38 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.38 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 74.0% · fair market: 61.4% · edge: +20.6%
Model probabilities Michael Zheng 26.0% · Lorenzo Musetti 74.0% Why Lorenzo Musetti is favoured Lorenzo Musetti's Elo (1707) is +187 over Michael Zheng (1520); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 16.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 26.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 74.0% vs market 61.4% (edge +20.6%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.