Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Flavio Cobolli
To win
+$20.40
Total payout
$40.40
Joint prob
68.6%
Combined odds
2.02
Fair odds
1.46
Edge
+38.7%
Expected value: +$7.73 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.73 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 68.6% · fair market: 48.1% · edge: +42.8%
Model probabilities Alexander Blockx 31.4% · Flavio Cobolli 68.6% Why Flavio Cobolli is favoured Flavio Cobolli's Elo (1611) is +106 over Alexander Blockx (1505); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 25.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 31.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 68.6% vs market 48.1% (edge +42.8%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.