Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 15.5% · fair market: 15.3% · edge: +1.8%
Model probabilities Magdalena Frech 15.5% · Elena Rybakina 84.5% Why Elena Rybakina is favoured Elena Rybakina's Elo (1976) is +419 over Magdalena Frech (1557); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 5.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 15.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.