Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Anastasia Potapova
To win
+$6.60
Total payout
$26.60
Joint prob
76.9%
Combined odds
1.33
Fair odds
1.30
Edge
+2.3%
Expected value: +$0.47 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.47 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 76.9% · fair market: 71.9% · edge: +7.0%
Model probabilities Anastasia Potapova 76.9% · Sinja Kraus 23.1% Why Anastasia Potapova is favoured Anastasia Potapova's Elo (1634) is +203 over Sinja Kraus (1431); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 84.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 76.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 76.9% vs market 71.9% (edge +7.0%, suggested Kelly +7.1% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.