Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Panna Udvardy
To win
+$183.80
Total payout
$203.80
Joint prob
11.2%
Combined odds
10.19
Fair odds
8.90
Edge
+14.5%
Expected value: +$2.90 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.90 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 11.2% · fair market: 9.4% · edge: +19.2%
Model probabilities Panna Udvardy 11.2% · Naomi Osaka 88.8% Why Naomi Osaka is favoured Naomi Osaka's Elo (1726) is +273 over Panna Udvardy (1453); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 11.2% vs market 9.4% (edge +19.2%, suggested Kelly +1.6% of bankroll).